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यह भी अहम सवाल है कि क्या भाजपा किसी ऐसे राज्य में चुनाव जीत पाएगी, जहां इससे पहले वह कभी नहीं जीती है? क्या वह आंध्र प्रदेश, तमिलनाडु और केरल में खाता खोल पाएगी? ध्यान रहे दक्षिण भारत के पांच बड़े राज्यों में कर्नाटक में उसका वर्चस्व रहा है और तेलंगाना में उसने तेजी से अपना आधार बनाया है। फिर भी इन दोनों राज्यों में कांग्रेस की सरकार बनने के बाद भाजपा के लिए स्थितियां पहले जैसी अनुकूल नहीं रह गई हैं। तेलंगाना में पिछली बार भाजपा ने चार सीटें जीती थीं और कांग्रेस को तीन सीट मिली थी। एक सीट ओवैसी पार्टी ने जीती थी। बाकी नौ सीटें केसीआर की पार्टी को मिली थी। विधानसभा चुनाव हारने के बाद केसीआर की जगह कांग्रेस आ गई है। यह देखना दिलचस्प होगा कि वह भाजपा को रोक पाती है या नहीं।
आंध्र प्रदेश में भाजपा अकेले चुनाव लड़ी थी और उसे एक फीसदी से भी कम वोट मिले थे। लेकिन इस बार वह पवन कल्याण की जन सेना पार्टी और चंद्रबाबू नायडू की टीडीपी से तालमेल की संभावना तलाश रही है। वैसे मुख्यमंत्री जगन मोहन रेड्डी के साथ भी भाजपा के दोस्ताना संबंध हैं। माना जा रहा है कि किसी न किसी गठबंधन में जाकर वह खाता खोलने का प्रयास करेगी। इससे ज्यादा कोई संभावना उसके लिए नहीं है। यही हाल तमिलनाडु और केरल में भी है। केरल में उसे 10 फीसदी से कुछ ज्यादा वोट मिले थे लेकिन वह कोई सीट जीतने की स्थिति में पहले भी नहीं थी और अब भी नहीं दिख रही है। तमिलनाडु में अन्नाडीएमके के अलग होने के बाद भाजपा के पास अकेले लडऩे के सिवा कोई चारा नहीं है। अकेले लड़ कर वह बहुत अच्छा प्रदर्शन करेगी तब भी उसका वोट प्रतिशत दहाई में नहीं पहुंचेगा। इसलिए दक्षिण में विपक्ष के गढ़ में सिर्फ तेलंगाना है, जहां भाजपा को कुछ उम्मीद है।
उत्तर भारत में विपक्ष का गढ़ पंजाब को मान सकते हैं, जहां अकाली दल के साथ लड़ कर भाजपा ने पिछली बार दो सीटें जीती थीं। अकाली दल को भी दो सीट मिली थी। आम आदमी पार्टी को एक और बाकी आठ सीटें कांग्रेस के खाते में गई थी। इस बार भी अकाली दल के साथ भाजपा की वार्ता हो रही है लेकिन किसान आंदोलन ने सारी संभावना बिगाड़ी है। किसान आंदोलन के बाद ऐसा लग रहा है कि तालमेल हुआ तब भी भाजपा अच्छा प्रदर्शन नहीं कर पाएगी।
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